Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Disney and the haptic-touchscreen-everywhere future
If you missed the news today, Disney -- purveyor of Marvel comic resurrections and Martian remixes -- has something big up its sleeve: a new technology that could make iPhones and iPads obsolete. It's called "swept frequency capacitive sensing" and basically turns any material into a responsive touchscreen.
Any material into a touchscreen. Your jeans. Your T-shirt. Your car dashboard. Your couch. The water running from your kitchen faucet.
This is (a) mind-blowing and (b) predictable, if you consider it. The technology, termed "Touche" (Disney, please get a better branding firm), was created by Disney Research in Pittsburgh, part of the entertainment giant's R&D group. Reporter Rebecca Lipman at Kapitall suggests the tech could allow any surface to pick up the swoops and pinches you now squish on your smartphone, creating limitless applications. You sit on your sofa, the TV turns on. You tap left-right on your steering wheel, and your car's phone calls home. You kiss another woman, and your wife gets a warning call from your ChapStick. Don't even get me started on the bathroom and bedroom potential.
Ken Farsalas, an equity guru at Oberweis Small-Cap Opportunities Fund (who must be drooling over Disney's stock, oh yes), suggests "The next biggest thing is sure to be ubiquitous connectivity." Talk about radical innovation. If anything can be a responsive touchscreen gadget, then what happens to gadgets? Instead of buying the iPhone 6, you might just tap your belt to check the weather.
Image: Meredith Farmer
Friday, May 4, 2012
It's time to rethink the definition of TV
It's time to redefine what a TV set is, because in a world of glowing panels, calling some televisions and others computer/mobile/tablet screens makes no sense.
Case in point: Yesterday I predicted in Bloomberg Businessweek that Apple will soon launch a real TV device (not its current little streaming gadget). While this news has been bandied about for more than a year, I suggested Apple may carve out a new niche of secondary, smaller screens. Why?
First, big televisions are already beautiful, and an infrequent purchase decision. It will be very difficult for Apple to get you to swap out the monster screen you bought two years ago... Second, Apple’s real play will be content sales, not TV hardware profits ... there is huge bloat in what we subscribe to, and we pay cable companies about $74 billion annually for this privilege. Add the $70 billion in TV ad spending, and Apple could grab a slice of a $144 billion video market.
These are all easy bets -- Apple is brilliant at reinventing products, and if most U.S. consumers have upgraded to gorgeous, large flat-panel sets, then creating a secondary market of video devices for the home is a no-brainer. But beyond this silly little prediction is a question: What are TVs, and why do consumers love them so much?
Yes, households are cutting cable subscriptions and CNN's ratings are in the tank. But Nielsen notes U.S. consumers still watch more than 5 hours of video each day -- and if you include computers, tablets, and phone video usage with TV sets (the only thing Nielsen tracks in ratings is video received via televisions), then video usage is way up. When you read reports that households now hold slightly fewer television sets (about 3 per household in the U.S.), remember "TV" is an arbitrary delineation of the broader video screen category. When I hear social media gurus say no one watches TV anymore, and then link to the videos they are producing for clients, I laugh.
Nielsen is as darkly responsible for this as anyone, since Nielsen is the organization in charge of reporting on (and really, defending) traditional TV impression metrics. The migration of consumers to other devices is real, but if Nielsen begins to blur its ratings for broadcast TV and cable, advertisers howl. So one "slice" of screens remains labeled televisions, while the growing glut of other digital panels is termed something else. This device demarcation makes as much sense as print publishers reporting on audiences based on the different thicknesses of paper stock.
Video usage is a function of personal space
So what is television? How does a video differ? Several years ago I wrote a guest post at Brandflakes for Breakfast that consumers have three modalities of intaking information in their "personal space," from social space at about 10 feet away (a campfire distance perhaps used by ancestors for telling stories late at night) to a personal space of about 3 feet (the visual distance you have for holding a tool in your hand) to the most intimate space near your body (the distance of a whispering lover or child). Today movies/TV panels fit the distant space, laptops and mobile handsets and tablets fit the work-tool-in-hand space, and cell phones whisper in our ears.
Our human consumption of media has not really changed since we gathered around fires with our cave-people ancestors. We need inputs from a distance, from our hands, and from our ears. We love video because sitting back to listen to tall tales is a storyform that goes back 50,000 years. Apple will launch TV panels because there's an innate urge in each of us to take in images. The very definition of TV will change as television sets and LCD panels and computer screens and tablets and windows with shifting images all begin to push images, from social to personal to intimate space.
There is no TV or laptop or mobile screen or social media video. There are only moving images. And just like our ancient ancestors, we all like to watch.
Image: fstoaldo
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Why Facebook should sell ads outside of Facebook

Back in January I noted Facebook has a frequency problem -- the basic fact that every Like happens only once, and one touch is not enough to spur consumers to action. In advertising, frequency is the number of times you reach a person with a message, and in study after study a frequency of 3 to 4 ad impressions per week is required to break through resistance to get people to respond. This typically maximizes the "response rate curve," as shown above. So the basic problem with Facebook "Likes," the one click of a human saying she digs your product, is that it is only one real impression. What happens next?
Which brings me to the solution -- Facebook should sell retargeted advertising outside its Facebook ecosystem. This wouldn't be hard to do; Facebook would simply tag the computer of any user who "Likes" something with a cookie, and then via partnerships with ad networks or direct bids into ad exchanges, Facebook would enable the serving of downstream ads against that user.
This would provide an incredibly powerful new ad format, combining social media engagement (one Like) with multiple followup contacts (banner ads served across the Internet to maximize frequency) to drive real response (which is not a silly "Like," but rather when someone actually buys your product).
But it would mean Facebook would have to admit users do things outside the Facebook ecosystem.
The downside is this would remove the perceived brand imperative that you must build response mechanisms inside Facebook, just as 10 years ago you had to have keywords inside AOL. Sad. Because Facebook serving retargeted ads outside of Facebook would work beautifully. What do you say, Facebook, want to give integrated advertising a try?
Labels:
Facebook,
retargeting
Friday, April 6, 2012
The design that may keep the web alive

Is the web dying? And if so, will something else replace it?
Pew has a new report out that goes beyond the usual “99% of Americans use mobile phone” surveys to interview experts in digital media about whether the web is going away. For years now, you see, prognosticators such as Josh Bernoff and Chris Anderson have suggested the 1990s web browser interface is being killed by one-touch apps and a splintered gadget ecosystem.
Back in March 2010, I wrote in Businessweek that yes, Apple, Amazon and Google were deliberately selling iPads, Kindles and Droid phones that won’t talk to each other, so they can ensnare their users in content sales. I noted:
A battle looms, and it’s not about selling new gadgets -- it’s about using devices to lock you into a content ecosystem. In an ironic evolution of the World Wide Web that once promised consistent access to all of the globe’s information, corporate giants are now striving to wall off sections of content and charge you for access.
So back to Pew’s report. There is huge evidence the “appification” trend will continue; by 2016 there will be 10 billion mobile Internet devices on the planet, 1.4 per human, and Apple and Google mobile audiences have downloaded 35 billion apps to date. Most damning toward the old web, Pew notes that by 2015 sales of smartphones and tablets will outpace those of computers by 4 to 1. It sounds like the web must fade, and that Steve Jobs was right when he compared computers to old dusty pickup trucks, once favored but now replaced by shiny new tablet wheels.
But...
Something else is going on, something that may keep the web alive. If you’ve played with Google+ or Twitter recently, you’re seeing fluid interfaces that must make Microsoft’s software dev teams uncomfortable. Web page designs are morphing into app-like ease. Apple’s latest operating system captures swooping trackpad gestures that merge computers with tablet UX. Microsoft is launching a new OS that combines old Windows folder hierarchies with tablet touch features.
Software and web windows and one-touch apps are becoming all the same thing.
Paul Gardner-Stephen, a telecommunications fellow at Flinders University, told Pew that “HTML5 and other technologies will continue to blur the line between web and app, until the average end user would have difficulty assessing the meaning of this question.” William Schrader, founder of PSINet, said something even smarter -- that apps eventually will recognize screen size and slide into large or small formats accordingly.
But the biggest idea for a web that survives came from Harvard professor Susan Crawford, who noted “apps are like cable channels -- closed, proprietary, and cleaned up experiences ... I don’t want the world of the web to end like this.” Consumers may rebel when they realize they can’t play Flash video on Apple mobile devices because Apple wants to sell them videos its own way.
We can already see signs that the closed app world is reopening. Amazon offers a free Kindle app on Apple iPads, and Apple accepts the app because the utility of allowing the huge Amazon giant in outweighs the dissatisfaction of grumpy tablet consumers blocked from buying readable books.
Apps may be forced to open up, because open systems create better experiences for consumers, and that stimulates demand.
If you step back, today’s closed system designs are pretty gnarly. Twitter redesigns itself constantly, and it’s a mess. (Great, this week you type your tweets into the left side of the layout!) Every app unfolds with different visual standards. Dan Lyons, the brilliant mind behind Fake Steve Jobs, once wrote in a post called “Does nobody care that Facebook looks like ass?” that “I look at Facebook and I feel the way I imagine I.M. Pei must feel when he looks at some giant public housing project. You just sit there going, Why? Why do this? Why make it so ugly when just for a tiny bit more effort you could make it, if not beautiful, at least not horrific?”
Walled gardens and poor UX designs are inefficient. Inefficiency is the signal for competitors to do something new to gain business. So in the deepest of ironies, the profit motive will keep the web open and alive. Something new will emerge, and it will look a bit like the old web and somewhat like a polished app. It will fluidly fill screens of all sizes. And it will be beautiful, because the ugly competitive forces of our world demand it.
Image: Linda Cronin
Sunday, April 1, 2012
The false dichotomy of engagement vs. broadcast (or why Pepsi sales are down)

To understand why Pepsi has now fallen behind both Coke and Diet Coke in sales for the first time in decades, let's examine the tradeoffs between two communication choices: inbound customer engagement and outbound advertising messaging.
We’ve explained the Information Ecosystem before, a simple model showing how information flows (inbound or outbound) to any group (of a few or many). Spend 10 seconds examining the model above and intuitively you'll see that communicators -- advertisers, marketers, organizations, husbands and wives, parents and children -- have four tactics at hand. You can broadcast outbound to many; pull research in from many; personalize outbound messages to a few, or engage in inbound communication from a few. Four paths, four tactics, all with their own value given your objective and audience composition.
The biggest mistake marketers make is falling in love with only one tactic. In the 1950s, broadcast was king, in a world where only outbound advertising at scale was possible and communicating with small groups or individuals was too costly. In the 1990s, some companies embraced 1to1 personalization as the future of all communications, eschewing broadcast advertising empowered by new databases that could record preferences of individual customers. Today, in 2012, many companies buy in to social media gurus who shout engagement is the new panacea.
But is engagement really at odds with broadcast messaging? Of course not. Both play a different role on the same field:

The colored circles on the Information Ecosystem above show the debate that often occurs in marketing boardrooms. We must do one or the other, the arguments go. Some see a world where consumers still watch 5 hours of TV a day and commute in cars for 2 hours, so mass-media advertising must work. Others see the shift to Internet, laptops, text, smartphones, apps, social networks and tablets, and think digital-based engagement and word of mouth propagation are the solution.
The truth is, for most companies, both points of view are right -- because the dynamics coexist with each other.
When to pick engagement or broadcast
Engagement is a valid tactic if a few members of your audience (say, consumers) have higher value to you or influence over their peers. This variance was called by Don Peppers in the 1990s a "customer value skew," and the steeper this skew, or range in difference among customers, the more sense it makes to treat different customers differently.
In financial services and airline bookings, where some customers bring much more money to the table than others, engagement makes sense; but for commodity products, or services that appeal to broad swaths of consumers, engagement is a tactic best reserved for emergency situations, a "Motrin Moms" meltdown where a company must be ready to swoop in if negative attacks scale rapidly. If your customers are really different amongst themselves, or have potential to be wildly influential, engage away; if not, downplay this tactic.
On the other extreme, broadcast push such as advertising is best for companies trying to send a message out to masses of customers who all may need relatively the same thing. This doesn't mean everyone will want your product; but it does mean that even if you are targeting 5% of the population, the needs within that group are similar enough that outbound broadcast can stimulate demand. Education, awareness, interest, consideration are all dynamics driven by advertising to the masses, and the seeds for downstream word of mouth. Like a spotlight, you can target the outbound communications to small groups and do so with efficiency; but there is nothing wrong with pushing messages out to the masses since it is one of four valid communication pathways in the overall Information Ecosystem. The Super Bowl and Academy Awards got lots of chatter among consumers in 2012, and the starting point for both was a major television broadcast.
The lesson of Pepsi
Finding the balance is difficult. In 2011, PepsiCo slashed outbound ad spending on its Pepsi brand in half, down to $20.1 million, focusing more on social media engagement. In March of 2012, news broke that the Pepsi brand had fallen from No. 2 to No. 3 in sales behind Diet Coke -- a huge black eye for Pepsi, this being the first time in two decades it trails two Coke brands. Now Pepsi has said it will boost 2012 ad spending up by 30%. "We need television to make the big, bold statement," Massimo d'Amore, chief of Pepsi Beverages Americas, told the Wall Street Journal.
This is not to say Pepsi's move toward social-media engagement was wrong; but it did err in overweighting engagement and gutting broadcast for what is, at core, a commodity product in a highly competitive category. Pepsi failed in its judgment because it did not evaluate its customer base value skew accurately -- most customers have similar value to Pepsi (we can only drink so much a year) and a similar need (we're thirsty), and few have influence over their peers' beverage consumption habits. For a carbonated soda pop, treating different customers differently makes little sense.
The tactics of engagement and broadcast are not opposed to each other, and can fit in the same organizational marketing plan easily, provided the role of each is understood to manage customers in the appropriate manner. There is no ROI on being invisible in a marketplace that needs education; there is also danger in not responding to the small groups of influencers or customers with the highest value, so engagement may be required as well.
Do you need to tell everyone about a new thing? Or is there a steep customer variance in your target base that, if managed, could turn the tide of your business? Answer those two questions, and you'll have an initial cut at how to invest communication resources.
Labels:
communications,
engagement,
information
Sunday, March 25, 2012
The sad case of Twitter's missing personalization

Way back in the 1990s I had the fortune to work with Don Peppers, who created the concept of "1to1 marketing" strategy. Don wrote a series of best-selling books describing a future world where information would allow nearly every service to be personalized -- the idea being such customization, newly empowered by cheap databases, would build unbreakable switching costs. LIke a marriage where your spouse remembers you like chocolate in your coffee on Sunday mornings, you'd never leave a business that remembered so much for you that it became inconvenient to go somewhere else. Don's 1to1 idea was adopted by software companies, renamed CRM for "customer relationship management," and ended up a sales bullet point for Salesforce.com. The rise of social networks in which consumers talk to each other also took some steam out of the idea, since the business-to-customer 1to1 dynamic became less the focus of marketing strategy when CMOs were scared that the surrounding customer networks had grown out of control.
Which is sad. Here's a case in point: Twitter. Go to Twitter.com and click on the "# Discover" link at top and you'll get hit with stories that are popular right now among everybody -- but not tailored to you. Imagine all the data Twitter has on us: Our tweets express all our interests, politics, purchases, hope and fears, and our links match up to homophily friendships that could further define exactly what we want. Twitter could build an unmatched predictive newsfeed for every individual, blowing The New York Times or Fox News out of the water with tales customized to our whims.
Except Twitter doesn't. One top "Stories" recommendation for me today is a link to a Kentucky-Baylor basketball game. I don't watch basketball. I have never mentioned basketball in any of my 24,410 tweets. Twitter, the game bores me to death, and a cursory analysis of my stream should show I'd much prefer a link to artificial intelligence advances, science fiction films, or chocolate recipes. (Don't judge. That's me.)
Perhaps for Twitter the cost of mining tweet data is too high (really?), or the small Twitter team is still underwater keeping the servers running (probable), or Twitter would rather go after very large advertisers such as Pepsi and AmEx who can spray everyone with the same message (ding! we have a winner!). So your news feed inside Twitter is completely off base.
Maybe Twitter just can't see beyond the initial investment. Treating everyone the same is the easiest form of marketing, and 1to1 requires an upfront investment hurdle far before services reap the rewards of loyalty or increased use. The only companies really doing personalization are Amazon.com and Netflix, which must offer recommendations right before each sale, and so 1to1 prediction is a competitive requirement. Twitter is still just learning to accept ad payments from mass marketers, so the personalization concept may be too sophisticated at its early monetization stage.
Sad. Because, Twitter, this unpersonalized "# Discover" news stream stinks, and makes me spend yet more time on Google+. Which is exactly the point: If you treat everyone the same, customers don't feel bad about leaving you.
Originally posted on Google+.
Labels:
1to1 marketing,
Don Peppers,
personalization,
Twitter
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
The PowerPoint slide that brought down a Space Shuttle

This is a story about the evils of PowerPoint. It was first told by Edward Tufte, the most brilliant mind alive on information design, whom a friend of mine once described as "the voice of God criticizing mankind." Tufte wrote the book on graphics theory, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information -- and in one of his most intriguing side riffs has lambasted PowerPoint for being a boil on human communication.
Tufte has explained how one horrible PowerPoint slide led to the 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia explosion -- or more accurately, the horrible bullet structure PowerPoint gives us caused the disaster. The problem is PowerPoint encourages writers to use clipped jargon that is hard to understand -- and if the point fails, bad decisions get made. As you likely recall, Columbia did blow up on re-entry, after a large piece of foam broke off during launch and damaged the edge of a wing. Before the Columbia accident, foam had crumbled off of many other shuttles during launches, so an internal report was crucial in determining how much risk the foam presented. Would it be a lot of foam? And could it hit the shuttle elsewhere with a lot of force?
Alas, the internal NASA report was presented in PowerPoint.
The NASA slide below has a series of nested bullet points that start out with a blase headline about "conservatism" -- sounds OK, right? -- overuses the word "significantly" until it doesn't mean much, and then at the very bottom buries the main point that foam debris that falls off and could hit the shuttle on launch is, ahem, 640 times larger than previously estimated. If the truncated phrase "Volume of ramp" had been expanded to read "estimated volume of foam debris that hit wing," and the headline made punchier saying "risk is 640 times greater than predicted in prior safety estimates!", executives in the room might have sat up and gone, holy shit, this entire shuttle could blow if we don't fix this.
They didn't, because the risk was a fourth-level sub-bullet in PowerPoint.
Tufte's point is that PowerPoint mimics the hierarchical structure of big business organizations, which is a bad way to communicate. Information is sliced into logical bits and truncated to the point of unclarity; as the information is passed up through an org structure, slides are deleted until only a brief summary remains. Context is lost; key points disappear; the narrative is destroyed. Or in this case, the astronauts aboard the Space Shuttle Columbia died.
What does Tufte recommend? Give people in meetings a short written report, that they digest as the meeting begins. Then talk, talk, about the real issues.
Originally posted on Google+.
Labels:
Edward Tufte,
PowerPoint,
Space Shuttle
Saturday, March 17, 2012
AmEx encourages consumers to tweet for cash

Or coupons, anyway. American Express has launched a promotion encouraging its cardholders to "sync" their card with Twitter. Then, if you want to load coupon-type discounts onto your AmEx card from merchants, you simply have to tweet a #hashtagpromotionoftheday to your Twitter followers, and AmEx will automatically reward you with a discount on your card.
At first glance this may seem cool, until you consider the user experience. Say you and I are friends via Twitter and #heysave$10onMobilgas! we're having a conversation online and #dontmiss10%offpantiesatVS our conversation seems somewhat #$1friesatMcDs! different perhaps. Better yet, as you scan the broader stream from all the people you follow on Twitter #paperonsaleatStaples! the overall ecosystem seems somehow #morefreefriesatBurgerKing changed.
From a marketing standpoint, this is brilliant, because it costs merchants almost nothing (discounts are a form of price framing in which prices can be jacked up and down for a perceptual benefit only) and could spur demand for both incremental sales and AmEx usage. French-fry sellers and American Express both get upticks.
But for social media users, an intrusion of paid, unexpected marketing messages could diminish their experience. MySpace went south after becoming too crassly commercial. Facebook grew to immense popularity by being careful not to overload users with advertising (Zuckerberg famously rejected banner advertising in his initial launch years, and eventually created a more subtle ad format off to the side). Now, Twitter is trying to catch up in advertising revenue with in-stream intrusions. The question is whether the blurring of the traditional hard line between paid advertising and unpaid human/editorial content, by asking participants themselves to spray marketing messages, is damaging to a network in a way that will eventually reduce usage, audience, and viability.
We could be wrong. Maybe tweeting #thisoffermeansmoretomethanyou will make us all more popular.
Are we afraid of where technology is leading us?

If you peel back the judgmental layers of the recent SXSW Homeless Hotspots controversy -- that it was meant to help the homeless, no it was a PR stunt, no it was a PR stunt that backfired, no it was a meta-PR stunt designed to backfire to create massive conversations that built even more PR -- the deepest layer is why everyone got upset: We all fear technology. No one gave a damn when homeless people in Austin made a little money selling newspapers, but when BBH Labs had them hand out wireless connectivity, suddenly it was "degrading," "dehumanizing," "exploitation." Really? If the transfer of product, value and information was the same, but only the conduit changed from ink to ether, then why is information transmitted on crushed wood pulp a better use of human value than data sent via airwaves? The user next to the homeless man or woman could receive the same story from the service, first on paper, second on a tablet. So who cares?
The answer to me is simple: Deep inside we are afraid of where technology is leading us, how it is disengaging humans from the real world, and this Hotspot effort which at superficial glance apparently merged poor people into technological antennae was thus a Frankenstein creation, an eerie look into the uncanny valley of morphed human gears, and that is distasteful.
People freaked out unfairly because human-technology singularity is damn freaky, and BBH unwittingly woke us up to that merger.
This reaction was completely illogical. But in my view, this was the greatest lesson from BBH Labs' brave and noble experiment. We didn't learn how to help the homeless, but we sure saw how scared we get when technology becomes part of our human souls.
From my comment at What Would The Internet Do? More information on Homeless Hotspots is here.
Image: Tim Caynes
Labels:
fear,
technology
Monday, March 12, 2012
The metaconversation wins for BBH Labs in Austin

Everyone wants to go viral, yet so few have the balls to do so.
BBH Labs just showed how it's done by hacking SXSW Interactive, an Austin tech conference with so many product launches that breaking out there is nearly impossible. (If Twitter showed up this year, everyone would yawn.) So BBH came up with a plan to draw attention to the plight of the homeless by turning homeless volunteers into "mobile hotspots" -- armed with MiFi connections that could get a nearby user online, provided he or she spoke with the homeless person and got the passcode. BBH gave simple instructions on its blog: "Introduce yourself, then log on to their 4G network via your phone or tablet for a quick high-quality connection. You pay what you want (ideally via the PayPal link on the site so we can track finances), and whatever you give goes directly to the person that just sold you access."
Alas, the idea of turning poor homeless people into roving antennae drew controversy. The radio business program Marketplace got snide interviewing BBH Lab's Saneel Radia, and the UK's Daily Mail derided the "marketing stunt" that drew "an outcry."
Which is exactly the point. Now millions of people are hearing about the plight of homeless people in Texas, and how an agency used technology to get them fleeting jobs. You're probably thinking, wow, those poor homeless people. Maybe tomorrow you'll notice one on a street instead of walking by in oblivion. With a few mobile handsets and cheap printed T-shirts, BBH Labs has accomplished what $1 million in advertising could not have done.
The only conversation that counts is the one that makes you think. Saneel and BBH Labs, all we can say is, well done.
Labels:
BBH Labs,
SXSW,
viral marketing
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Apple patent would let your pants talk to coffee shops

One of my favorite geek activities is to skim through Apple's patents, which are updated nearly every day. Apple files for many cool ideas, such as holographic TV sets or haptic-sensory gloves, and the patents hint at real products to come.
Now, Apple wants to watch your body. In a recent filing, Apple described the need to move body-movement sensors beyond its current Nike+ sneaker systems, frankly admitting that the current Nike+ is limited in what it can do (basically log and share running miles, although Nike+ has started progressing into wristbands and watches):
The use of devices to obtain exercise performance information is known. For example, simple mechanical pedometers have been used to obtain information relating to walking or running... unfortunately, however, it is becoming more commonly practiced to place the sensor at locations on a garment (shoes, for example) that are not specifically designed to physically accommodate the sensor and/or calibrated to accurately reflect data...
The problem is twofold: athletes can move in many ways without shifting their feet, and there is a vast market beyond athletes if Apple found new ways to monetize other body-movement data. So Apple continues with this new concept -- sensors in all clothing:
An embodiment of this invention pertains to linking an authenticated sensor with one or more authorized garments (such as running shoes, shirts, slacks, etc.) that can provide in addition to current physiologic data of the user, garment performance statistics (i.e., rate of wear of a running shoe), location of the garment and any related information (location of near-by eating establishments, for example) and any other garment related data.
The expansions of Nike+ would improve human tracking in a way that moves more Apple entertainment content. Clothing that tracks nuances in movement would allow Nike+ to work on bicycles, indoor trainers, or weight training; all of this data could expand the social functionality, and also tailor music playlists and content sales, a nice source of profit. The next way could be using physiologic data and LBS tracking to align Apple mobile devices with retail network partners (coffee shops, clothing outlets), telling you when and where you can find offers to refuel from workouts, another source of revenue for Apple. And Apple could even get into the payments game: if Apple integrated NFC into its mobile devices, it could capture a slice of each transaction as you use your iPod instead of a wallet.
Your physical condition, movement, content preferences, and buying mechanisms could all revolve around Apple. You'd get better feedback and personalized content ("Nice workout! And your favorite coffee shop is just ahead!"), and Apple would make a lot more money.
All you have to do is wear the right clothes.
Image: Patrick Caire
Originally posted on Google+.
Labels:
Apple,
haptics,
mobile advertising,
Nike+
Saturday, March 3, 2012
How marketing destroyed fog lights

Buy a European car such as Jaguar, Mercedes, Saab or Volvo and you'll find something different on the dash -- a switch to turn on rear fog lights. In Europe, cars are required to include special lights on the back that can be clicked on in foggy weather -- as a bright warning to cars coming up fast behind you not to hit you. It's a rather simple, brilliant idea.
Of course, in the U.S., most cars have fog lights as an optional accessory on the front of the vehicle, low-down on the bumper, where they do little good. Really. Drive in the fog here, turn on those low beacons, and you get a little extra wattage illuminating the ground 10 feet in front of your tires. Most U.S. fog lights are not yellow either (a color that can cut through haze better than white light).
Why does the U.S. have fog lamps that are just cosmetic, jazzing up the front of the car or SUV, while Europe has truly functional lights on the back that might save your life? Marketing. Fog lamps are an extremely noticeable add-on to a vehicle, and when you're considering whether to drop $29,000 or $36,000 for exactly the same car, little accessories such as front fog-lamps, fatter tires, and leather seats add thousands of dollars to automaker profits. You would never spend $7,000 for a leather couch and new lamp -- such a price would be a rip-off! -- but you'll gladly consider spending $7,000 more for exactly the same car with a "package" of fog lights and leather seats.
Marketers know that a car without fancy lights on the front looks less inviting than the vehicle with a touch of glamour, and we'll irrationally pay far more for that. In marketing psychology, they are using a bland car bumper as a reference point to upsell you to a non-bland car bumper, at a higher price point that really makes little sense. The package bundle includes parts that are not as great as the perceived whole; the price obscurity sucks us in, and marketers win fatter margins.
So if you get rear-ended in the fog next week, don't blame the driver behind you. Blame yourself for spending money on front-facing lights that make your car look cooler.
Image: kardboard604
Originally posted on Google+
Labels:
auto design
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Understanding when engagement is, or isn't, the answer

What would competing solely on information look like? And if you did battle competitors with information, is "engagement" the best way to do so? To understand when and how to compete with information, let's walk through four simple competitive frameworks.
First, consider that while we live in an age of information, few management experts consider it the basis of market competition. The classic tenant of marketing is there are just three ways to compete: product-focused, operations/cost control, or customer solutions. Each is a choice, and companies within the same industry with similar products can elect to compete on a different dimension.
In 1995 Michael Treacy summed up the old model for competition, drawing heavily from Michael Porter’s masterwork Competitive Advantage, in his book “The Discipline of Market Leaders.” Competition, as backdrop, is defined beyond the cliche of company-fighting-company to a strategy that provides a serious advantage -- a structural position that competitors cannot easily duplicate. Treacy’s model looked like this:

Apple, for instance, is a product-focused competitor. You don’t chat with @Apple on Twitter because Apple really doesn’t give a damn about engaging with customers. Steve Jobs was notoriously skeptical of customer focus groups, and while Apple does a brilliant job of managing vertical operations, its real gift is product innovation. Apple has built such amazing products that competitors, even armed with thin flash drives and aluminum, cannot easily displace Macs or iPads or iPhones. Picking one of the three angles of Treacy’s competition leads you to success because it brings focus to your organization. (And you can pick any angle you want; within the same computer industry, Dell is known for customer-solution focus with extensive segmentation marketing, while Acer focuses on operational efficiency to sell inexpensive computers.)
However, this old model misses a new competitive position: Information. Like a fish swimming in water not perceiving H2O around it, or early humans breathing air not realizing oxygen existed, for centuries businesspeople ignored the information flowing around their organizations; information didn’t really have a name until the 20th century. Upon our discovery, we then treated information as a simple fluid, like money or electricity, to be managed in inflows and outflows. The rise of information technology systems in the 1990s sought to reduce the noise (waste) of information input and transmission, and accelerate the dissemination of output, but all the while information was categorized as a force, an ether, a thing, about as negligibly important to macro competition as paper supplies or office furniture.
But in the past 20 years, information has become a vital, focal entity of its own. Information is no longer a subordinate throughput, but an end goal to be desired. Wired magazine co-founder Kevin Kelly writes in his brilliant book “What Technology Wants” that the interlinks of all technology tools -- computers, car dashboards, GPS systems, bar codes, television programs, printed materials -- have created a global network now with more complexity and contact nodes than the human brain. Kelly does not believe, as Ray Kurzweil does, that information is about to wake up in a singularity of artificial intelligence, but he does note within computer networks a small percentage of digital traffic has no identifiable originating source. Our global information system is talking to itself. Something in there is going on. Information, at some level, has come alive.
Demand is the magnet pulling information forward. Consumers around the world have a seemingly limitless hunger for more content. In the United States, television is still king, with the average human watching 4 hours and 44 minutes a day; mobile and Internet and social media use is rising, but rather than eclipsing TV and radio, those new digital streams are additive, with consumers taking in or sharing from more than two information devices at once. Office workers are migrating to 2 computer screens. The typical U.S. home has 3 television sets. We can’t get enough information, and now with YouTube and iPhone videocams and Facebook, we're creating our own.
In this chaotic information explosion, confusion reigns. ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox were first challenged by cable, and now by millions of video streaming options on Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Google and Amazon. Businesses have the opportunity to become leaders via information dissemination with tactics such as "content marketing." Individuals can arise quickly to become “thought leaders,” gurus, new nodes on the information playing field.
If we want information as badly as products, service, and low prices, then information can be laid on a new grid as a focal point for competitive advantage:

Information is no longer a commodity like electricity or cash to be flowed and managed, but a choice for strategic warfare. Google, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Zappos, Oracle, HP, SquareTrade, Ford, Tesla, AT&T are all companies competing with layers of information that help set their products apart. You don’t have to be in the information business running a search engine to use information to attract consumers; you can instead position yourself as the information leader in your space to add a new electromagnet for customer attraction. Competing on information is why our agency Mediassociates has this blog and why I spend late nights writing columns for Bloomberg Businessweek.
So: If you decide to compete using information, how do you do it? Different organizations have different customer structures, and your information flow has to support that framework. The first step is to map your “Information Ecosystem,” which breaks information down to its two basic characteristics:
1. Flow -- whether information moves more often inbound or outbound
2. Scale -- whether information is best deployed to a few or to many.
Flow and scale define the playing field for information strategy. Within the Information Ecosystem live four basic tactics, or information uses:

1. Broadcast. At the top right of the information flow/scale quadrant is broadcast, where information flows outbound to many parties. ABC, CBS and NBC were kings of this in the 1970s, but you’re likely broadcasting yourself if you use Twitter to send out “please click my blog post link” to 3,000 followers. Broadcast is a one-way ticket out, a selfish attempt to push a single message to as many people as possible. You need broadcast if you want to influence many to do one thing, or get many to receive one idea. The advertising industry, Hollywood, and yes, most social-media gurus are built on this model. Broadcast gets knocked about these days, but it is one of four completely valid information strategies, because at some point any organization has to influence the vast network around it.
2. Personalization. The inverse of broadcast is personalization -- still an outbound flow, but a tailoring of information to the one or few people who receive it. Your Christmas cards, Amazon.com’s dynamically rendered e-commerce page, the direct mail on your counter are all attempts of various finesse to create the illusion of personal response; but it’s still an outbound push. Personalization is a valid strategy if you have many different constituent groups with varied needs, and if the cost of personalization is offset by corresponding sales increase via personalization. Netflix personalizes because the content presentation on its website is economical vs. the increased sales and usage customized movie recommendations generate; Nike would never personalize sneakers, because the marginal utility of custom shoes would not offset the high production costs.
3. Research. If a business model can leverage inbound flow of information from a mass of customers as a primary differentiator from competitors, research is the valid tactic. Typically this model only works for organizations that can repackage that group inflow as a key product, e.g. Pew, Arbitron, Nielsen, and Experian. However, many business-to-business consulting organizations such as McKinsey use inbound research as a key differentiator; management consultants who complete a deliverable for a European postal reorganization must also submit the findings to the internal knowledgebase, which can then be resold to other clients at hefty margins.
4. Engagement. And the last information strategy is the buzzword of recent years, “engagement,” the use of inflowing information from one or just a few customers. Engagement is valid only if your customer base has a high value skew -- a wide range in value to you -- or if small groups or individuals can wield great damage or gain to your organization. Ad agencies focus on engagement with their B2B client prospects, because one sale can build a new agency department. Financial service companies focus on engagement with their highest-value investors, because treating a Warren Buffett differently than Joe Sixpack can yield vastly different commissions. The more your customers differ in their needs from you and value to you, the more engagement makes sense. But as a core strategy, engagement only works if huge skews in customer value or influence are within your customer network.
When would engagement make sense? The table below shows the only scenario where engagement should be your core business strategy -- where a few people can cause huge swings in your organization’s profits or public perception:

In this scenario above, a “few” have more value than the many -- or a few have the ability to swing public perception about your company. Not every industry is like this -- gas stations sell about one tank of gas each week to everyone -- but others have enormous concentration of customer value or influence in their consumption base. Booksellers, airlines, high-end restaurants, hotels, coffee shops, and ad agencies all have some customers who use them much more than others, so treating this varied group in a different way provides value, differentiation, and competitive defense.
The engagement choice makes sense if a small group of customers could wield positive or negative influence across the majority of others. This is why big companies such as AT&T, Ford or Dell have built social media command centers to engage with a few people to prevent hot spots on the negative side (popular bloggers pissed at a product incident must be managed) and to encourage influence on the positive side (why not invite people with huge Klout scores to the next product launch?). But for many companies, this idea may be overwrought; Klout scores in essence are silliness, and the idea that a small group of bloggers/Tweeters might disrupt a massive business such as Pepsi, or drive huge lift in Pepsi soda and energy drink sales, is suspect.
It's all a choice on how you compete. Pick your focus from product, operations, customers, or information. And if information is your weapon, pinpoint the corner of the Information Ecosystem strategy matrix that matches your customer structure. In your evaluation process, it is vital to distinguish information as a tool to be managed (and it must be managed by everyone) and as a weapon for competitive advantage (defined as going to market in a way that stymies competitors). Every organization may need a Twitter presence, research, broadcast, or some personalized content, just as you need a website; but information is only a strategic focus if its sets you apart in a way that builds barriers to competitor response.
If products, or low prices, or total service do it better, information need not be your focus.
Like customers, not all information strategies are created equal.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Volvo tricked me with a decoy

After a few weeks of hunting I bought a new car, lured completely by a decoy. A decoy, in marketing or sales, is when someone offers you a thing knowing full well that thing isn't really what you want, but will get your attention. The world is full of decoys -- $1 appetizers at bars that get you to buy $20 in beer; $7 movie tickets that coerce you to buy $10 in popcorn and candy. A decoy likely put you in your house -- Realtors use a classic strategy of showing you a home that needs repairs right before the pristine home they want to unload on you. That "whew, this house is OK!" feeling was completely a psychological setup, but you knew that, right?
The most successful decoy of the past 20 years was likely the New Beetle, released in 1998 with a brilliant redesign by J Mays. VW rode a wave of new sales, but many were Passats and Jettas purchased by consumers who strode onto the lot curious about the cute new bug, then decided they needed something more.
I just did the same thing, lured by a Volvo C30 and discovered an S60 with more power and room, for a few K more. I've always considered Volvo one of the most boring brands in the world. Safe. Secure. Yawn. A hot-hatch design got me on the lot to discover the Swedes have been playing turbo catchup to the Germans.
Decoys are a variation of "price framing," a concept by behavioral economist Richard Thaler that customers are bad at judging value, so marketers must give them a reference point A to react to. A dress marked 50% off, down from $200, refers to a price of "$200" that never really existed -- but makes the $100 price point feel so much better. Some decoys are magnets, pulling you into a sales ecosystem to buy something else. Some can be negative, showing what you don't want so you'll move over to item B. Decoys cut through the clutter of commercial capitalism by giving us a beacon. They help us fool ourselves into perceiving value, since we now have something to compare that value with.
I wanted something that I didn't want, then ended up wanting another thing. The Volvo is a rocket and is safe and has room for the kids. I never would have found it without the impulse to chase a cooler design I didn't need.
Decoys work really well.
Posted on G+.
Labels:
auto design,
decoys,
Volvo
Friday, February 17, 2012
The future of variable pricing

Yes, you should charge some customers more than others. To understand this concept of “variable pricing,” let’s play a mind game. Imagine you walk into a restaurant, read the menu and discover this new place serves only pork chops. You call the waiter over and ask, “why only pork chops?,” and he responds “our chef has found the average person likes the average meal of pork chops, so we only serve what the average person wants.” You’d walk out, thinking, wow, idiots!
Most companies price goods the same way -- setting an average price that an average consumer will find appealing. The old Econ 101 textbooks talk about markets setting prices, with supply shortages or growing demand pushing prices up, and inventory growth and consumer apathy pushing prices down. But the inference is at any one time, there is one perfect price for any one product, because 100 years ago all marketers could do was gauge overall market demand. Adam Smith's Invisible Hand moved all prices for a given good in one swoop. Companies do this today; when the iPad 3 launches, Apple will likely price it at $500 for everybody.
But why charge everyone the same price? Shouldn’t the tech-geek salivating over the new iPad 3 be hit with a $1,000 bill, because he'd willingly pay it, and the mom at home who isn’t too hot on tech be charged only $300? Their levels of desire are different, so these customers could and should be charged different prices. If Apple could find an even split audience, it would average $650 per unit for that glorious new tablet with retina display -- jacking margins up $150 while keeping everyone happy.
Yet even Apple with all its smarts hasn’t figured out how to charge you or me differently based on our individual need states. Variable prices are used by some marketers, but usually only in four blunt ways: (a) a hook to lure in new customers (see magazine “30% off for subscription" deals), (b) discounts that self-select cheapskates (see grocery store coupons that give only those who clip them 50 cents off a can of beans), and (c) incentives to stop customer defection (try calling your cable company tonight threatening to quit to DISH and they'll drop your monthly bill by $20). These first three ways differentiate customers to either build new acquisitions, solve a problem of a subset hypersensitive to price, or stop churn. What is common is they all threat mass subgroups of customers the same.
The fourth version of price variation is tied to timing -- cycling through price hikes or drops. Apple is brilliant at this, rapidly moving all its products through price reductions (say, an iPhone priced at $500, then $400, $300, $100, of course all with backend data subscription offsets) usually timed to push old product inventory as a newer version launches. But again, it’s treating all segments of customers the same at any given time.
But what if a fifth pricing approach, one-to-one pricing, were possible?
If you and I are different people, we obviously want things at different levels. Desire is not a binary on-off switch; we may both want a new pair of cowboy boots, but you kinda want them now and I’m burning to get a new pair. So I’d be willing to pay $200 and you only $100 if marketers could see inside our heads. By setting the price of the boots at $120, marketers are aiming toward an imperfect average -- making me happy, and trying to push you up a little in what you'd pay -- but I could give them more margin, and you less, for more overall profit if only prices were tied to our individual desires. I should pay $200 and you $100. The average shoots to $150. We're happier, and the leather-stitcher is richer.
The only thing stopping marketers from reaching a perfect, one-to-one variable pricing strategy has been the inefficient exchange of information. People’s needs and desires change hourly; demand is constantly in flux, rising and falling like a Twitter meme; no computer systems have been able to track this opportunity to the moment, so marketers take broad cuts at the problem, charging first-class airline passengers more for the illusion of cushier seats, or dropping utility bills for new customer sign-ups. The only organizations good at this are B2B groups such as management consultants, who can take the time to carefully scope the hunger of a potential client and price services accordingly. (The technical term for this price approach is FMA, or "from my ass.")
This will change soon. All that is needed is technology to identify consumers’ “need state" -- how much they crave a product now -- and output technology to change the price offer.
What are the input technologies? Mobile phones are soon adding NFC wireless technology to become mobile wallets; apps such as Square and others may leapfrog the technology with customer identification tech tied to your bank or credit accounts. LBS pinpoints your location on maps, and the technology is getting so good Google Maps recently began showing the store locations inside malls as you walk around, differentiating whether you are on the first or second floor. Social media connectivity means your personal ID can be had if you walk into a geo-fenced location. Soon, if you walk into a wine store, they will know who you are, what aisle you’re in, what you like, your customer lifetime value (estimated stream of future profits), and your social network.
What are the output technologies? Digital screens, of course, are getting cheap. E Ink and the like could make labels and price tags variable, morphing instantly based on the customer approaching them.
The future is rather obvious. You and I walk into the clothing store, and the leather jacket tag flashes $500 for you if you really, really want it, but only $300 for me if I sorta, kinda want it. Rather than timing mass pricing to mass market demand, variable pricing would dynamically change to maximize the match of consumer desire with marketer profit.
Does this seem unfair? Of course, but treating people differently is part of life. If you have two children, you send them to two different grades based on their age. You give you wife and mother two different gifts for Valentine’s Day. If you coach track, you push the high school athletes at different levels based on their starting endurance and speed.
Changing pricing to an individual, one-to-one level is simply marketing efficiency taken to the ultimate conclusion. Technology will soon make it happen, just as certain as the coupon in Sunday’s newspaper will let you buy coffee at the supermarket for 35% off while I pay full fare.
One-to-one pricing will happen. I probably shouldn’t have confessed I really want those cowboy boots.
Image: Jef Safi
Labels:
pricing
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Why Underdog flies (the formula for going viral)

A joke inside ad agencies is yes, we can make concepts "go viral," but we charge extra for that. Last night Seth Casteel's photos of underwater dogs started popping up everywhere in Facebook and Twitter streams, without agency help. Seth has been around for a while -- his website has a quote from Cesar Millan, and Seth had a guest segment on the TV show Extra! back in November 2009.
So why now? Why, for a fleeting moment, are people crazy about sharing pics of dogs baring fangs underwater?
Back in 2010, I defined the mathematical formula for viral success.
For your message to spread, the passalong rate must be higher than the absorption rate over a given period of time; that is, if only 1 person passes every 1 message along, and then every first person stops action, you'll only have a linear path of meme sharing, and you'll never reach more people than 1 at a time; you need 1.1 people to pass your message along vs. the 1 person who then stops after sharing for the message to continue to scale upward. Antivirus companies such as Symantec use similar models to predict how computer bugs spread. The formula is this:
Viral spread = (Message generation rate - Absorption rate) * Cycle time
The truth is no one can plan or predict how an idea will fit into the cultural context of the moment, or how the pattern of complex passalongs leads to the viral success where the share rate exceeds the stall rate of transmission. For people to get excited enough to share an idea, it has to resonate against a cultural moment, provide a frisson of entertainment or shock, and stand out from competing ideas. This is one reason why marketers spend north of $3 million for Super Bowl ads, because the consumer ecosystem is primed to act on exciting ideas and share them (but only if the ideas are exciting, unlike most ads in this year's Super Bowl).
Yesterday was a cold February Friday in the Northern Hemisphere in the dead zone weeks after the Christmas holidays and weeks before spring. People are bored, and perhaps funny images of dogs in summery water gives us hope that blasé winter will end. So we share. No one knows why. You can't predict it. Some things just make a splash.
Originally posted on G+.
Labels:
photography,
viral
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Facebook's mobile advertising problem

Facebook's registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission is a brilliant read for anyone who works in marketing or social media, because as Facebook prepares to go public it has to lay out everything that could go right or wrong in the future of social. The company is crushing its numbers now, with a cool $1 billion in profit, but read Facebook's "risk factors" and what leaps out is the challenge of mobile.
Nobody has figured out how to make big money from mobile advertising; advertising rates for mobile ads are absurdly low, from $0.06 to $0.25 cost per click, a signal inside the ad industry that perhaps the back-end conversions from consumers clicking the ads are pitiful, and the macro mobile ad market has missed every rosy forecast of the past decade. Facebook hasn't even launched mobile ads yet on its app (although that is coming soon) -- and yet you know where consumers are headed. Handsets, tablets and other portable screens.
Here's what Facebook warns in its S-1 filing:
Growth in use of Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently display ads, as a substitute for use on personal computers may negatively affect our revenue and financial results.
We had more than 425 million MAUs [monthly active users] who used Facebook mobile products in December 2011. We anticipate that the rate of growth in mobile users will continue to exceed the growth rate of our overall MAUs for the foreseeable future, in part due to our focus on developing mobile products to encourage mobile usage of Facebook. Although the substantial majority of our mobile users also access and engage with Facebook on personal computers where we display advertising, our users could decide to increasingly access our products primarily through mobile devices. We do not currently directly generate any meaningful revenue from the use of Facebook mobile products, and our ability to do so successfully is unproven. Accordingly, if users continue to increasingly access Facebook mobile products as a substitute for access through personal computers, and if we are unable to successfully implement monetization strategies for our mobile users, our revenue and financial results may be negatively affected.
Digiday reported this week that Facebook will soon run mobile ads inside its smartphone app UI. For Facebook, it is absolutely critical that this new format succeed. Google also has been struggling with this issue, because the smaller screens in mobile mean any ads are more intrusive and less likely to be welcomed by consumers; this is one reason why Google bought Motorola Mobility and has pushed handset hardware designed with hot keys that boot search (and the corresponding search ads). As Facebook user growth slows (there are only so many people on the planet) and consumers shift away from PCs to portable Internet devices, the question is will we all want advertiser friends in our pocket?
Originally posted on G+.
Labels:
Facebook,
mobile advertising
Thursday, February 2, 2012
The Warshaw Curve, or why Kate Winslet is nude in 3-D

What does it mean that anyone can now easily create 3-D photos and video, or even print objects in three dimensions?
The birth of cheap production technology -- film, music, websites, ad crowdsourcing -- will probably lead to a "Warshaw Curve," in my opinion: the idea by video producer Douglas Warshaw that a rise in the supply of any production technology typically creates an inverted, U-shaped bell curve of quality output. Draw a wide "U," and on the left side write "bad stuff" and on the right write "good stuff," and you'll see the logic. In video, we have moved this way with grainy YouTube videos on one extreme and super-HD movie files on the other. In newsprint, we are seeing this with the surviving publishers being lousy local community papers or the high-quality New York Times. Knowledge is flowing this way with new communication networks enabling rapid scientific advance on one end and endless bloggers regurgitating "how to get social media ROI" on the other. Everyone in the middle gets killed when barriers to production or access fall. You have to either focus on more utility with low quality at mass scale (YouTube, IZEA advertising) or quality with artificial scarcity ("Titanic" now in 3-D, million-dollar spots on the Super Bowl).
3-D printing will create this same curve. My kids would love to build cheap Lego sets at home and I might toy with modeling. But, for many years, the output will be prolific and bad. If I want a good pair of running shoes, a mountain bike that won't break down, a classical guitar, or a watch that flashes status, I won't print it in the basement but will end up at specialty stores or the mall.
The inverted "U" of quality seems a normal distribution pattern in any network of production. As Len Kendall noted in the past (fall 2009 I recall, that's right, buddy, I'm learning from you), most social media sentiment is neutral, with only a small percent of people loving or hating a brand. Even in our production of feelings, the majority is blah, with highest response in the extremes of poor or great. Material manufacture will follow the same curve of emotion, video, print, and knowledge, and it is a mistake to assume the peak on the high-quality end will disappear if low-quality output surges.
The real question, of course, is how Kate Winslet will feel having her now-younger self in love scenes projected on the big screen in 3-D.
Revised from my recent comment at Len Kendall and Gunther Sonnenfeld's brilliant blog. Also posted at G+.
Labels:
3-D,
film industry,
Warshaw Curve
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Singularity blinks
So here they are, supposedly the most human-like robots ever created. What's intriguing is these are in real-space -- physical robots like Asimov imagined, vs. the fake-reality Hatsune Miku-type avatars that can be projected as holograms from hidden screens. This raises an obvious question: As we perfect high-definition video panels everywhere, why would we invest in robots that exist to touch? Isn't it enough to see a perfect rendition of Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie on a digital panel, an AI version of a late Star Wars movie, pixels that float on screens simulating intelligence?
For all our technology, humans seem compelled to act as animals and touch and feel things. We need to interact in real space. This is why we fly on jets, travel to opposite shores to see people in reality, shake their hands, offer a hug to the good clients or sharp looks to partners who disappoint. This is why telecommuting, for all our fantastic communications technology, has never become a societal norm. The majority of communication is not only non-verbal, but based in physical presence. Unless three-dimensional panels can include some form of haptic feedback allowing us to "touch" the things in the room, we may end up with Asimov's physical robots after all.
Originally posted on Google+.
Labels:
artificial intelligence
Sunday, January 29, 2012
YouTube's 0.7% upload engagement rate
If you listen to the hyperbole, an hour of video is uploaded to YouTube every second. This sounds fantastic, and yes, that is a lot of video. However, that's only a 0.7% daily user engagement rate. The world has not turned into video publishers yet.
There are 3,600 seconds in an hour, so every second 3,600 people on average are concurrently uploading videos (to get 1 hour posted every second). YouTube has 790 million monthly unique visitors. So in any given second, that's 0.00046% of its entire potential audience actively engaged in contributing content.
Let's assume it takes 2 minutes to upload a video, so we can get through 720 cycles of uploads each day. Our (0.00046% of uploaders at any time) * (720 cycles of uploaders per day) = a per-day user upload engagement rate of 0.33%. You could play with this math further assuming faster upload rates equal a faster group upload cycle per second, so perhaps the engagement rate is 0.7%. You could also cut this number back by assuming some people are frequent uploaders, sharing more than one video a day, which would slash 0.7% to a fraction of engaged producers. I'll be generous and leave it at 0.7%. However you count it, the world comprises more watchers than doers.
Originally posted on G+.
Labels:
engagement,
mathematics,
YouTube
The tragedy of L.L. Bean's Pinterest (updated)

Pinterest is a social bookmarking site, an Instagram without the commitment, which lets users "pin" any image they find interesting on the web. Once you sign up for Pinterest, when you see anything you like in a web browser, you click, it's saved, and you build a Tumblr-style blog of groovy stuff to view or share later.
Brands are intrigued, because of course they want you to "like" or "pin" them, so in 2011 many set up Pinterest pages hoping for another broadcast medium.
Wait ... did I say broadcast? Well, let's look at L.L. Bean's Pinterest site as an example. Boots. Flannel shirts. Stuff you can buy. It's a catalog. There's even a picture of an L.L. Bean store. Sigh. This is sad, because the outdoor brand has millions of ways it could tell inspiring stories. If you visit its flagship store in Freeport, Maine, you can't help but be inspired to go camping, spend time in the dark woods with family and friends, pilot a kayak down a roaring river. L.L. Bean tells a story that many want to believe; most Americans who buy outdoor gear don't really spend weeks outside, but vicariously imagine a rugged adventure under sun and stars. L.L. Bean could fill 90% of its Pinterest pages with candy for that desire, and slip in a few products in the remaining holes. But, alas, it appears the social media editor for Pinterest just uploaded the entire L.L. Bean product catalog. Or it could be consumers simply like to "pin" product shots as well; see update below.
Now, consider the savvier Whole Foods' Pinterest. Here, instead of products, you're greeted with photo collections about garden sheds and cooking for the holidays, and as you dive deeper it feels like Martha Stewart is sharing inspiring scenes and scents from beautiful homes. (I'm not the floured-up rolling pin demo, but I'm sure this snuggier stuff has an audience.) Whole Foods inspires us to go do something. Likely, that will require a shopping trip, but that's the backbeat, not the lyrics here.
The great tragedy of social media is most brands use it solely to identify you and then spray you with one-way broadcast messages that promote their brand. "Engagement" is a pseudonym for "tagging a prospective customer." This is understandable. No big organization can easily interact in two-way dialogue with millions of customers. But L.L. Bean, can't you try a bit harder than showing duplicate images of furry boots?
Update -- Laurie Brooks, Sr. Public Relations Representative of L.L. Bean, responded as follows: "I’d like to provide a clarification to your blog post. L.L. Bean has a very robust brand social media presence, that does not yet include an official Pinterest account. I believe the link you posted is an aggregate of all Pinterest users that have pinned L.L. Bean. We are big fans of Pinterest and hope to be active in the space in the near future." The L.L. Bean Pinterest page appears to be under development here. The other page here http://pinterest.com/source/llbean.com/ is the No. 1 organic result for "L.L. Bean on Pinterest" and has been reported as an L.L. Bean site elsewhere in the press, but apparently is a crowdsourced compilation that resembles a product catalog. Thanks, Laurie, for the clarification.
Originally posted on Google+. For another view of how Pinterest is an evolution in social media, don't miss Douglas Brundage's analysis here.
Labels:
L.L. Bean,
Pinterest,
Whole Foods
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Ready Player One: Understanding Apple's haptic future

Soon, Apple will let you touch artificial reality.
Haptics is a term meaning touch, the non-verbal forms of communication such as shaking hands or kissing on the cheek that involve sensations of the flesh. But if you read sci-fi such as Ernest Cline's excellent "Ready Player One," haptics provide touch feedback for a virtual future. Sure, you've seen 3-D movies. But imagine immersing yourself in a 3-D virtual world, either via giant flatscreen TV panel or a pair of goggles, and having gloves, leggings or a body suit that provides tactile feedback. You touch something, and via minute pulses in the gloves or suit, that something touches you back.
With high-definition virtual projections and haptic feedback, you could leave this world for an entirely new one.
Apple is playing around in this space now, adding teeth to speculation it may soon launch high-end TV sets with glasses-less 3-D. This patent details Apple's plan for a haptic "feedback device" which uses a grid of sensors to (a) track where your body part is and (b) provide a feedback sensation when you move your hand, or whatever, through space. In technical terms:
"The haptels are coordinated such that force feedback for a single touch is distributed across all haptels involved. This enables the feel of the haptic response to be independent of where touch is located and how many haptels are involved in the touch. As a touch moves across the device, haptels are added and removed from the coordination set such that the user experiences an uninterrupted haptic effect."
What does this mean? If you see a bottle floating in front of you in a future TV commercial, you could reach out, touch it, and feel the glass curve. If you play a video game on a giant 3-D screen, when you punch your opponent, your fist will feel the impact. Other than the obvious porn implications, computer and entertainment interfaces may soon no longer need keyboards or glass pads or remotes. Because unlike Kinect-type technology that only tracks your motion in space, you will be able to "touch" the projected elements in the space in front of you.
In "Ready Player One," Cline imagines a lonely teenager who rents an apartment, staying inside to play virtual games clothed in a haptic suit, running on a circular treadmill, lost in a brilliant artificial world far away from this one. Now, Apple is making it real.
Microsoft Word, we hope you can keep up.
Image: Edward Drake
Monday, January 16, 2012
Tim Hortons' brilliantly disguised price increase

How do you raise your prices while convincing customers to buy more while making customers think they're getting a better deal?
Tim Hortons, the Canadian donut chain, just did all this brilliantly. Hortons simply shifted the size of all of its cups up a notch: a "small" is now a "medium," a "medium" now a "large," etc. Hortons notes in its fine print that this "isn't a change in the price or actual amount of beverage" -- which means customers will pay the same per ounce of coffee. At first, this seems a fair deal, but now consider the likely scenario.
A regular customer walks in and orders her "medium" coffee in the morning ... and is handed a larger cup. With more ounces. At a greater overall cost.
Our customer, bleary-eyed and thirsty for her Morning Joe, has a choice -- return the coffee for what now has a "smaller" size name, or keep the larger size. If she sticks with the new cup size, she'll be ordering more coffee every day, and pay more for it. Yet she walks out carrying a larger cup, feeling like she's getting more at Tim Hortons after all.
This form of pricing is called "price obscurity," a clever ploy to gain more revenue per sale by making it difficult to judge what you're really getting. You've seen this before at movie theaters that give you a strange, extra-large size box of candy that costs $4 or $5. Is that a good deal? Of course you can't tell, because the packaging obscures the value of the candy inside. If you're still confused, play Hortons' strategy to the extreme, and imagine if ordering a "small" coffee returned you a gallon that cost $30. Is that still a good deal?
Tim Hortons may not be charging more per ounce, but it is charging more per "size," and sizes are what coffee customers order. Well played, Hortons. We bet your profit on this new pricing will be extra large.
Labels:
pricing,
Tim Horton
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Why banner ads are ugly

Some people aren't keen on banner ads because they clutter up web content for consumers and have low response rates for marketers. They work, but making them work is a science. This is why we were elated when AOL announced Project Devil in October 2010 -- a new ad format that would prettify banners, take up a full third of a web page, and put the editorial "stuff you want to read" in the remaining two-thirds as seen in the image above. The ads were both bigger but less obtrusive; cleaner, like a magazine layout; and able to hold several components including video for just a single advertiser. If it worked, the reading consumer would see less clutter and the advertiser would win more splash -- both parties win!
Alas, Business Insider reports Devil Ad sales are down in Q1. AOL's overall audience is down too, sliding in the U.S. from 60 million monthly uniques when Devil Ads launched in October 2010 to 41 million today, according to Quantcast. The ads cost much more than regular banners, about $48 CPM vs. the $2 to $4 CPM smart buyers can get through ad exchanges or ad networks. Apparently a 12x price increase didn't offset the beauty and functionality of digital ads that don't get in your way.
Posted on Google+.
Labels:
AOL,
banner ads
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Facebook Actions vs. the frequency problem

Imagine walking into a bar and meeting the love of your life. Your eyes lock, a flash kindles, and immediately both of you realize destiny has arrived.
So you walk up to her and say, "I like you," and then walk out of the bar forever.
Good tactic? Nope, because your communication had no frequency.
Frequency has been a basic advertising concept for a century, the logic that repeat impressions are required to drive any action. Alas, this is where social media engagement falls down, because most "engagement" in the space equals just 1x frequency. For years now, marketers have been pushing Likes on Facebook, or similar social media actions such as retweets on Twitter, as a new metric indicating an audience is interested. But what happens when someone Likes your brand on Facebook once? They click a button, then walk away. You've had one tiny interaction. Sure, they may now be subscribed to some outbound stream, but that push followup messaging is just another form of broadcast media, especially at scale.
Now Facebook is addressing this problem; VentureBeat reported on Thursday that FB is expanding its "Like" functionality to include other "Actions" -- a series of verb terms that could include "Read," "Watched," "Listened," or custom responses such as a foodie site that could post a button for "Cooked." Facebook Actions would solve several problems with current social media response:
+ It allows for nuance, the various stages of consumer engagement, which could boost response.
+ Actions solves the Facebook frequency problem.
Now, an enterprise trying to engage customers in social media can do more than push for one Like -- it can add shades of subtlety that bring consumers back for repeated interactions. Imagine Ron Paul trying to win your vote. It's unlikely he'll get you to Like him immediately if you are not in his political camp, but you might Argue, Debate, Listen, Consider ... and eventually be persuaded to Like his message later. The more variations of engagement organizations provide, the more chance that they'll move prospects up the response curve. And every additional interaction creates another ripple in the broader social-graph stream.
Sure, all this could create a vast online silliness, a cluttered bunch of buttons for people to click on. With Diggs, Tweets and +1's all competing for space, social response controls may become as ridiculous as a 1980s' flight-simulator videogame interface. Facebook Actions could also devalue the already-fuzzy currency of Likes; how in the world do you score 2,000 "Cooked" mentions for your CFO? But let's give Facebook credit for trying; at least now, like rethinking the true love you met last night, you may get another chance.
Labels:
Facebook,
Facebook Actions,
Like
Friday, December 30, 2011
(Archive) The technology of love

Sarah Jamieson is a metro office worker who aspires to be a writer. She’s 24, slightly overweight, but knows she’s attractive because John at the front desk keeps ogling her chest. Sarah isn’t dating, though, because work is stressful and the hours are long and it’s just too damned hard to find time to go out. The last guy Brian was a jerk focused on unbuttoning her blouse, and Match.com is for losers — so a break is in order. Each evening after taking the G train home she cooks a microwave dinner in her apartment over a Brooklyn grocery, pours a glass of white wine, and retires to a wooden desk, a gift from her grandmother, to write a post for her blog AGirlWithoutAHammock.com. While Sarah types, her Mac’s TweetDeck program flashes updates from online friends every 15 seconds or so — tidbits such as “RT @johnhenry57 Do you remember the first time you fell in love?” — and she feels the warmth of human connection, of belonging to a tribe, of knowing others who know her needs. John Henry lives in Britain, she thinks, unsure and too tired to click to his bio. She pecks out a final sentence, hits Publish Post, tells herself she’ll call her mother tomorrow, and goes to bed.
That story is fiction.
The reality is closer: Many people live two lives, one with a lover or cat at home and another far away in a fictitious corporate environment, a battle of spreadsheets for entities that exist only in legal documents with surnames such as Inc. or LLC, in small rooms under fluorescent tubes far from the sun. Hours there are traded for numbers, no more than ones and zeros, that flow like blood into electronic scoring tables called bank accounts, and then can be transferred for goods, food and shelter. Perhaps stunned by the fake ambience of math, these people take recess in online games that pretend to connect to other people, with scoring mechanisms telling them they are growing more popular.
This story is real.
How did our world splinter in two — a home life with flesh and blood, and a corporate matrix populated by artificial-numbered social reality? If veal is disdained by some who would never eat a calf kept in a small bin, not allowed to roam free, trapped indoors for life; then who would eat you? In the United States, 9 in 10 people commute to work by car, spending a collective 3.7 billion hours a year stuck in traffic, only to arrive at job sites that require 9 hours or more of input into devices that lead to numbers in banks. If humans are social creatures, driven by sexual urges to procreate and parental desires to protect our young, how did we mortgage our lust-and-love connections to spend so much time in artificial environs?
Why is that which is closest to our bodies now furthest from our souls?
Social scientist Geoffrey Miller posed in Spent that the world did not have to end up like this; rather, it was series of unforeseen inventions, some helpful — such as trading markets or artificial currency — that allowed us to build and buy self-pleasuring items such as tickets to Tori Amos concerts or Hummers with poor turning radiuses. Unfortunately, Miller suggested, these inventions pushed us away from the bucolic values that once kept tribes cohesive and love close at hand.
Yes, you own a shiny iPod that can pump emotional music into your brain to bathe you in warmth, but you can’t hug your wife or kids at 3 p.m. while flying to Dallas or typing downtown. Technology has expanded our need set; we can fill our lives with near-perfect entertainment tools, the equivalent of 300 plays running concurrently in any hour on our TVs, pre-cooked meals of any flavor, voice transmissions around the globe … and yet most of this time is disconnected from the children who make us laugh or lover who brings us pleasure.
Is this too negative? Look around on the highway in the morning, at the cars crowding you, each with only one person inside its steel box. We have mortgaged our lives, and the answer lies in our drive for loyalty, for the stability of people or places or things that we can count on that will do us no harm. We crave predictability, because it helped our ancestors survive. The best way to predict the future is to find environments that have repeatable events driven by loyal people we trust. As environments have become more artificial, they’ve also improved in stability — and we find that loyalty pleasing.
Consider what loyalty is. Psychology has defined three aspects of faithfulness: emotional attachment (affective), perceived switching costs (continuance), and feelings of obligation (normative). Fear of switching and feelings of obligation are two potential motives for our inertia in staying in jobs, in living the same commute, in not fleeing the business world to go build sea-shell necklaces on a beach in Mexico. The false thrill of numbers in a bank have given us 2 of the 3 loyalty mechanisms we need to stay put in evolving society — we fear switching, and we’re obligated to go on.
But what of the other: emotional attachment? The affective aspect of loyalty is harder to fulfill, because it resorts to such funny stuff as novelty, humor, friendship, compassion and love. You felt this as a child with your mother, and perhaps when dating as a teen or falling for your spouse, the incredible drive to stay forever with another being who is filling your emotional needs. Emotion is the strongest impulse for loyalty, for going on one path and neglecting all others.
About 15 years ago, technology began filling our loyalty gap.
Technology today has accelerated our fake relationships, the reinforcement of stability, of loyal beings who will give us what we need. Social media tools such as Facebook, Twitter, email (yes), texting, video-sharing, or Flickr all allow us to connect with others who seem to love us. Of course, they don’t, because love requires commitment and true understanding, but technology appeases those flaws by allowing each user to set up self-filters to screen the content most likely to simulate affection. Twitter brilliantly imposed a gaming-psychology device, a number of “followers” at the upper right that each user can track to see how many connections he or she has, a proxy for requited emotion. Facebook has taken another approach, installing an EdgeRank algorithm that pushes only updates from friends it deems interesting into your stream (based on how often you communicate with them, how many others have commented on the post, and how recent it was). The result is a warm flow of material that seems addressed to you by others who care, each item surrounded by popular comments showing a community of interest.
You are embraced by others who love the concept of you.
Yes, this sounds dark. Grave. Abysmal. But consider the deeper question: if we have lived for 500 or so years trading fictitious currency as a sign for the value of goods, instead of swapping real grain and furs, has the new set of follower numbers and social content that emulate real relationships provided an even more compelling fiction, which will further remove us from the real world in our lives? Perhaps that view is wrong. Perhaps you, reading this, think you have your reality under control, that the emerging smart phones and tablets and social network apps are simple extensions of your communication, just as eyeglasses help you see and sneakers ease the pain of your run.
Maybe there is no seismic shift away from physical, flesh-touching, semen-and-tear-and-Band-Aid- stained reality at all. The glowing screens around us are only tools, not encroaching windows ensnaring us in false worlds. We’ll think of that as we turn off this computer and go kiss our kids in bed.
Originally posted at Sundayed in November 2010. Image: cambiodefractal
Labels:
love,
psychology,
social media

