Nielsen reported U.S. ad spending for the first six months of 07, and local newsprint took another hit -- down -8.0% year over year. Internet ad spending was up 23.2% by comparison. Glossy mags and outdoor had modest gains.
What gives? Analyst John Dvorak writes local newspapers have asked for this punch because they are lazy. The typical small daily has original news on pages 1 and 3, and then pads the rest with AP wire reports.
Years ago, this lazy model worked. The wire services used to provide local papers with a wide range of stories that local editors could use to enliven their news mix. Over time, many newspaper owners saw the savings they could realize from loading up on wire stories while minimizing their original editorial content.
Once the Internet arrived, this model was dead, as the Net revealed that many newspapers weren't actually contributing anything new or unique. The fact that people all over the country subscribe to the New York Times, rather than to a local paper, says it all.
Our bet is the big dailies and the tiny community weeklies will survive. It's the mid-sized newspapers in the middle that have the most at risk. Advertisers who use measurement to track responses from daily newsprint ads don't need to see the circ numbers (or "readership" claims) to make the call -- if costs per inquiry continue to climb, they will put their funds into other, more economical media.
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