As TV ratings lie, Kimmel goes live

These new television C3 ratings are BS. Really. Let's think about this -- more people are using DVRs to record TV and skip commercials, and yet the networks have found a way to measure DVR use so the ratings go up.

Here's the story. Today about 1 in 4 U.S. households has a cool black box called a Digital Video Recorder, such as TiVo, so you can record TV programs in advance and zoom past commercials. This is the second big smack in the face for television advertising, the first being the rapid migration of TV viewers to other media, such as the internet and YouTube, for video viewing.

Fewer viewers + viewers skipping commercials = TV advertising crisis.

Obviously, no one can sell ads on TV unless you can estimate the impact. So a battle formed. Ad agencies sought to get more accurate measurement, by tracking impressions of individual spots within a commercial pod (and not the overall program rating). Television networks tried to get more vague, by measuring live impressions (when the spot actually airs) plus a 7-day window of repeat viewing for all the DVR users who "watch" the commercials in the following week.

This is where the story starts to smell bad.

A great compromise emerged called C3 ratings -- "live" ratings of the ad at the time it actually airs plus a 3-day window of later viewing. Networks would still love the "plus 7" window to count a full week of follow-up impressions. Rino Scanzoni, chief investment officer of GroupM, told Media Planner Buyer last fall, If you look at the program ratings for the five broadcast networks this season, you’re seeing 11 percent to 12 percent erosion. When you factor in live plus 7, it’s closer to 2 percent ...

Did you catch that? Ratings were down, but now magically they are back up.

Thank goodness Jimmy Kimmel has decided to try live commercial skits to keep viewers tuned in. As the baloney sandwich of new advertising metrics starts to stink, trying something new in the creative may be a good defense. Or if you really want to get crazy, just measure your sales results.