We were just reading a book — you know, that handy, high-resolution content-sharing device with unlimited battery life — and found an answer to all the hyperbole today over new communications tools.
If you look at the histories of most new industries in America, from the railroads to television to personal computers to, most recently, the Internet, you'll see a similar pattern. In all these cases, the early days of the business are characterized by a profusion of alternatives, many of them dramatically different from each other in design and technology.
As time passes, the market winnows out the winners and losers, effectively choosing which technologies will flourish and which will disappear. Most of the companies fail, going bankrupt or getting acquired by other firms. At the end of the day, a few players are left standing and in control of most of the market.
That's James Surowiecki, the brilliant business commentator for The New Yorker, recounting the standardization of automobile design from the many early choices of gas and steam and electric. But he could have meant today's selection of silly social media: Badoo, Bebo, Blogger, Facebook, Flickr, Flixster, Mixx, MySpace, Nexopia (see, Canada, we're paying attention!), Orkut, Plaxo, Pownce, Reddit, Twitter, Vox, Xanga and YouTube. We get a call a week from some new social site/email/video thing launching and often can't understand the basic business plan. We sent a friend an email inside Facebook tonight and thought, wow, this is as easy to use as email.
Today's minor e-revolutions boil down to text and pictures, audio and video. Eventually one or two formats will win. If you don't believe us, go into your living room and look at all the books.
(Photo by Gualtiero.)
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