Jay Leno's audience at NBC has fallen sharply in the past year since he moved to the 10 p.m. slot. While this would seem good news for his rivals, a few numbers should strike fear into other TV networks' hearts:
- Leno is down 1.8 ratings points (that is, 1.8% of all U.S. television households have stopped watching Leno).
- DVR use in the same hour is up 1.4 ratings points.
Hmm. What those numbers mean is a population the size of Phoenix or Philadelphia has stopped watching NBC at night, and instead replaced it with Digital Video Recorders. David Poltrack, CBS' chief research executive, told the AP that the DVR trend was "a little bit higher than we thought" -- a result of the one-third of all U.S. homes with TiVo-style devices learning to catch up on shows they missed. Since Leno appears to be boring people, consumers are using the 10-11 p.m. window before bedtime to play back better stuff. Will they use DVRs to skip commercials, too?
Just wait until the web gets in the basement
DVR use hasn't taken off yet; they're more of a ticking bomb for advertisers sitting in consumers' basements. Nielsen reported this spring that U.S. consumers still watch only 15 minutes of DVR-recorded television a day, vs. 5 hours and 9 minutes of the live thing. But Leno's slide shows how fast consumers can change their behavior, and they soon will have even more temptation to avoid broadcast networks. TV manufacturers are beginning to sell flat-panel sets with internet access, and 48% of consumers report they would consider purchasing one in the next 12 months. When the web marries TV, a million alternatives to Jay Leno will be just a click away.
Image: Roo Reynolds
3 comments:
Ben,
This really shouldn't be news to anyone. "Broadcast" mentality (and the advertising model that goes hand in hand with it) is becoming irrelevant. The Leno show was a leftover of television history/style when it started, why should it translate to an on demand world?
The networks will bury their heads in the sand until they are forced to change--and the only thing that will ever force change will be economics. So, when the web "hits the basement" not until the web "hits the basement" and their bottom line will they even try to evolve (if they're capable).
The issue is that the industry was built on thriving off of scarcity. Now, suddenly, they don't own the pipe anymore--all they own is their brand and they'd better find a way to make that pay.
Studies show that dvr users tend not to skip commercials. They're either just watching them or using them as a bathroom break opportunity.
@James, thanks. I agree we're in the middle of a huge economic reset for broadcast. The problem is the margins once charged by creating scarcity won't exist in a world where everyone has a camera. Things will reset ... at lower price points. Still, while the trend is not news I found it interesting that Jay's single shift could cause an apparent spike in DVR usage within one year.
@Bud, yes, I've seen those studies (couldn't find the most recent one). DVR use may be a passive modality, since we all want to slouch on the couch sometimes. But the risk is there, and I'd be nervous as a broadcaster knowing so many consumers had fingers so close to the fast-forward button. Which could be why those remotes are so complex to work -- secret plot to protect ad inventory? ;)
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