One hundred years ago the automobile transformed the world. People could drive long distances; Bonnie and Clyde held up remote banks thanks to speedy getaways on city-connecting roads; homes spread into the suburbs, long-haul trucks replaced trains, and now we have 40-mile commutes.
Could pocket video do the same thing? This thought was sparked by USPS's funny new microsite in which a letter carrier chats amiably about how to hit your Christmas or Hanukkah shipping deadlines. Not novel, but the fact a staid government agency is toying with online video shows how prolific it's become.
The Apple tablet will tip the video tide
Portable video -- the capture, sharing and watching of moving images -- is relatively new to society. Before this year, we always had to sit still. In 2009 Apple became the tipping point; it began adding videocams to tiny iPods and iPhones, and teens can now watch films on gumstick-size screens. (God forbid the action going on in college dorm rooms.) Now news emerged today that Yair Reiner, an analyst at Oppenheimer, has dug through the Apple production pipeline and found evidence the mythical Apple tablet will hit the streets in March or April of next year. Sure, Dell will launch an Android Tablet in 2010, too -- but Apple will make it cool.
This story goes beyond gadget features, although we're certain the Apple device will be sexy. Laura DiDio, top analyst at the Information Technology Industry Council, predicts the Apple tablet will have a large screen (the size of a sheet of paper), a crisper resolution than the iPhone, web access and a built-in web cam. Basically a glass pad that does everything.
So what happens to society?
1. Magazines and newspapers might be saved. They will begin to include video and interactivity, like this prototype from Sports Illustrated. The ailing publishing world will gain subscribers as it improves the quality of its content.
2. Television ratings will continue to fall, as fragmentation of viewing approaches infinity and print publishers get into the video game. We see hints of this with Nielsen recutting its panel ratings to include online video.
3. Augmented-reality views of the world may increase, like this stunning app for finding New York City subways.
4. The proliferation of two-way video could finally push down communication fees. AT&T and the like have been worried about Skype; when free international video calls are as easy as touching a pad in your pocket, consumers will lose patience for monthly $200 phone bills.
5. The convergence of the above -- falling video costs, ease of image access, and augmented visual clarity -- will finally shift society.
It's a serious thought. Most human communication is nonverbal. If we depend upon our eyes to understand the world, when we can finally get visuals from anywhere with a portable screen, our growth becomes untethered from our physical reality. Telecommuting, a logical idea that has never scaled due to the human need to lock eyes and grip hands, could finally emerge as videoconferencing approaches the clarity of reality. Remote education, now available online in various college portals, could expand university enrollments (while threatening fees). Even the institution of human love, already migrating to online flirtations in Twitter and Facebook, could blossom into far-flung relationships in which you can do everything but touch your lover.
The only real puzzle is what Apple will call the tablet device. We bet "iPad" because it's alliterative with iPod and iPhone, and Apple is too hip to do the "tablet" we expect. Too bad it isn't on sale now; we'd ask the USPS to ship us one for Christmas.
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