Our inability to see trends


Business managers usually have two requests: forecast and then measure results. Marketing directors and media planners happily comply. Trouble is, the measurement approach usually looks at tiny intervals of time — a few weeks, a month, a quarter at best. Quant jocks are like ants crawling through the cracks of massive momentum, trying to predict inclines without seeing the real hills ahead.

What macro trends are you missing? Are you really paying attention?

3 thoughts on “Our inability to see trends

  1. Great observation. Too many brands and marketing campaigns are scrapped because they’re not blowing the doors wide open in the short term. Patience is a virtue.

    On another note, that graphic is SCARY. Good thing I bought my first home in late 2007 (sarcasm). Ahhh, hopefully I can get what I paid for it in a few years! 🙂

  2. Yep, the chart is scary, and it looks like housing has a ways to go before it settles. While we must manage risk by looking at the big picture, I still think that some major decisions in life — having kids, buying a home — should be gut decisions.

    We’d all never get out of bed in the morning if we tried to avoid all risks!

  3. I’ll agree that marriage and having kids is a leap of faith.

    I didn’t have to see the chart to know something was wrong with housing. How could people afford those home prices given the prevailing salaries? The discrepancy was particularly glaring on the East and West Coast, never as bad here in the Midwest. We had the opportunity to move back to Boston a couple of years ago but decided not to due to outrageous housing costs that would destroy our standard of living.

    The problem is that those coastal chickens are coming home to roost across the whole country.

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