Marketers trying to launch viral campaigns get some bad news in February. Network-theorist Duncan Watts takes on Malcolm Gladwell in Fast Company over whether viral marketing really can be controlled. At dispute is the theory that a series of key influencers set viral campaigns in motion -- proselytizers whom direct-to-consumer marketers love to try to reach.
Gladwell wrote up influencers in The Tipping Point, suggesting there are certain types of people who are much more connected in society -- hipsters, trend-setters, gregarious salespeople. These people have both charisma and connections to hundreds of others. When a viral idea reaches them, they accelerate it on to the masses. This is supposedly why Razor Scooters appeared everywhere in 2000; cool kids got them, then all the other kids followed. The "influencer" idea was given credence by a famous study back in 1967 by sociologist Stanley Milgram, who reported that most people in the world are separated by only six degrees of contacts.
Watts, however, has run computer models that show viral campaigns don't work through "hubs" of key influencers -- instead, they take off almost at random. What's more important, Watts says, is whether society is "primed" for the event, like a dry forest waiting for the first match spark.
This has huge implications for marketers who would love to spark the next fad by seeding copies of music or new sportswear among hip influencers in NYC and San Francisco. We love Gladwell, but find this alternative view fascinating. Read it here.
