Watching for market shifts

In our 30s we became infatuated with men's watches -- not really understanding the brand hierarchy, but feeling the pull of Patek Philippe on the high end, sometimes admiring Rolex (but knowing they were for old men), shelling out a few hundred for a Swiss Army with complications every few years, and finally settling on Breitling as an aspiration. A bit James Bond-ish, but more complex than the official Bond Omega.

It all culminated on a vacation trip at age 39, when we stumbled upon a jewelry store and began an hourlong flirtation with the young woman behind the counter (sweetie was shopping elsewhere). Italian, the woman was, and the way she presented watches led us to believe a key was being laid on the counter to a new, secret, exciting world of manhood. Every piece of titanium and crystal posed a question: Are you man enough to divine these movements?

But we walked out. Something tipped, more than the idea that a grand for a watch is way too much. We began to realize that watches may become a relic.

What happened? Cell phones, then smart phones, and now iPhones have moved us beyond watching time to connecting with photos and video and blogs and mobile text. The function of "what time is it?" has turned into a periphery, a tiny numeric display at the top right of your cell phone. We now expect our portable tools to do far more. If a watch is a knife -- even a beautiful blade -- we now need the Swiss Army model, complete with corkscrew and social media.

We're certain demand for wrist watches will continue, at least for a few decades aided by ads in the Wall Street Journal. But you can feel the shift. Market changes take time, but as SUVs are replaced by hydrogen cars, and newspapers disappear in favor of small internet screens, you have to wonder: How will the long shift of demand affect the products that you sell?

Photo: Envios

Elvis teaches you the instant response

Our last few posts have featured unclothed women and erogenous fuzzy peaches, so in the spirit of fair play we now show you a young Elvis in tight leather.

Here's the point: Watch this crowd in the first instant that Joseph Hall walks on stage. They don't know if this Elvis impersonator is good, if he can dance, if he sings or screeches. But in that split second, you can feel the crowd make a flash judgment -- and tip toward a response.

Advertising is just like this. Most ad messages are developed laboriously by research, focus groups, past campaign analysis, creatives, math types with offers, and media planning. But it all must work in that first heartbeat. There is a miniscule flashpoint in which consumers decide yea or nay, move past this or digest it, turn the page or consider a response.

You have to catch the consumer in that instant. The message has to be simple and focused. The impression has to tip.

Sort of like a guy in black leather.

The (gasp!) sexiness of Miley Cyrus

So young Miley Cyrus rises to fame on Hannah Montana, gets her pop country singer Billy Ray a job on the set, becomes a cash cow for Disney, poses almost topless on a Vanity Fair cover, and now this week at age 15 gets castigated on blogs for looking a little too provocative with a milk mustache. (Ad blogger Steve Hall deconstructs America's can-you-believe-it-but-let's-look-closer obsession here.)

Sex works in advertising because it is an irrepressible part of our response mechanisms, and one that may be the most easy visual. (By comparison, it's really hard to communicate the scent of fresh-roasted meat in magazine or TV creative.) Societal mores aside, the human physiology is ready to reproduce around age 13, and young teenagers respond to any whiff of hormones. The very fact that there is a lower limit to what society approves of in sex, officially, means the people who want to get a response are going to step slightly across that line.

Marketers behind such Miley "scandals" may stage these events because they know there is a difference between what people say they don't like and what they respond to. The same parents and teens upset that a glowing Disney star would look so provocative are chasing her all over the internet and buying all her DVDs and MP3s.

In a way, the Miley scandals are a bit like a gruesome highway accident, that thing on the side of the road that reminds you of your own physical rawness, forcing you to slow down and look even if you really don't approve of the bodily concept. Sex and fear, anger and shock heighten impressions and extend recall. We're not suggesting that snapping photos of a 15-year-old girl in a sheet is right. We're just saying that major entertainment companies who pose teenage girls in tight tank tops with milk drizzling from their lips know exactly what they're doing.

Global warming and the politics of advertising

Ever wonder if Obama or McCain would be better at selling your product?

In 2008 it's worth considering politics in your advertising strategy. For example, a recent Pew study found that there is a huge split among Americans who believe in global warming, right down party lines: 84% of Democrats think the planet is cooking vs. 74% of independents and 49% of Republicans.

We're not saying who's right or wrong (after all, what do 649,000 years of carbon dioxide-temperature correlations really tell you?). The point for marketers is your own product or service may create splits among party lines, especially if your brand is divisive among liberals and conservatives.

Do you sell oil? Energy? Meat? Automobiles? Education? Theater? Adjusting your ad media not only for demographics, but for political views within those demos and the geographic locations of the most receptive, may make sense.

Graph: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Drinking in the stimulus response

What prior experiences were Nestea and Coke referring to in these ads?

B.F. Skinner wrote that motivation has three requirements: A preceding thing or event that will provoke a reaction; the reaction itself; and a reinforcing or punishing consequence. People's likelihood to respond is tied to a formula that includes the magnitude of the stimulus -- say, someone waves chocolate in front of your nose -- the context of the stimulus -- say, are you really hungry? -- and the rate of prior reinforcement -- say, you've eaten chocolate before and you LOVE it. Because people, like dogs, associate the stimulus with the prior pleasure they received from a similar, earlier interaction, we salivate when we smell food.

This is important for marketers, because consumers have stimuli other than your own message. You can't just build a concept by looking internally; you have to consider the exterior factors hitting your prospects as well. For example, a gasoline station with great customer service could focus ads on friendly staff, but consumers facing $4.00-a-gallon gas today just may not care. You provide service; they're worried about price. Understanding all stimuli can help you refine the message.

In advertising, messages that reinforce prior rewards and mitigate past pain are most likely to stimulate response.

Photo via New Shelton.

Beware David Armano's 'Novelty Curve'

David Armano writes one of the most amazing blogs, filled with graphics that somehow crystalize ideas you have bouncing around in your head but never really expressed. A while back we noted how consumers are enticed to spend money tied to the transaction utility, a term that means the juice you get not from the actual object, but simply from buying the damn thing. Transaction utility means there is joy in the purchase or financial exchange itself, and it's the reason you probably have cowboy boots or leather coats in your closet that at one time you had to have and now you never wear. It's the reason American consumers go crazy at Christmas.

We don't really need stuff. But sometimes, we really like to buy it.

Armano's Novelty Curve sums up this concept in a different way, moving beyond the initial purchase transaction to the entire life cycle of product popularity. It's a huge lesson for marketers who think the adoption curve of their wares or service will grow forever. Un-uh. Consumers lust for new products and experiences, but over time that fades. Think of today's trends such as blogging, Facebook, Google search, petroleum consumption, Harry Potter movies, Apple coolness, and real estate prices. When things are on the uptick, the people in those industries believe they must rise ever higher. But eventually -- hey, how's your home price doing? -- the wave hits the shore.

In your next planning session, try this thought: Where is your product or service on this curve? And what are you going to do when it crests?

Killing chocolate bunnies, or why we respond to fear

Reading the NYT review for the brutal movie Funny Games we began to wonder, what is it about fear that people find so interesting? Or, if you found another short film about torturing chocolate candy, would you watch?

Psychologists say fear is essential for survival -- it sparks the flight or fight increase in pulse and muscle tension that helped our ancestors run fast from tigers. A debate over fear was what caused a rift between Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung (although some say it was because Freud was sleeping with Jung's wife, a bummer in any friendship). Freud thought libido was the prime motivator of humanity, and sexual urges drove our behavior; Jung thought deeper archetypes -- call it pieces of our unconscious -- were at work. Jung's archetypes explain why people who live in cities who have never seen a reptile still have a deep-rooted fear of snakes. And a big motivator for Jung was fear of death.

Fear is often used in advertising, not necessarily as the main tool in attracting attention, but more for selling the message. A classic example is the 1987 This is Your Brain on Drugs campaign. Economist John Kenneth Galbriath famously pointed out that advertising makes people buy things they often don't need, because we fear not having enough. In The Affluent Society,

He depicted a consumer culture gone wild, rich in goods but poor in the social services that make for community. He argued that America had become so obsessed with overproducing consumer goods that it had increased the perils of both inflation and recession by creating an artificial demand for frivolous or useless products, by encouraging overextension of consumer credit and by emphasizing the private sector at the expense of the public sector.

Consumerism equals fear -- worry that you don't have enough gadgets or clothes or food or supplies or pelts, also wanted by your ancestors, too, as they fought to stave off the ultimate end. If their cave didn't have enough nuts, they'd die in winter. The impulse of fear somehow stimulates us; roller-coasters and mall sprawl are the logical result.

All of which explains why we find the above anti-rabbit film by Dutch filmmakers Lernert Engelberts and Sander Plug fascinating. Something is at work, deep, and Easter will never be the same. Tx Andy for the sweet dream.