Beware of GVI: Google Visual Inventory problem

The more we think about the Google Visual Inventory problem, the more we realize it threatens all internet advertisers. It's simple. As consumers shift to mobile devices, interface screens get smaller -- leaving less visible room for ads. Google, and other advertisers, run out of visual inventory.

Ad inventory is the bread-and-butter of making money online; it is why it takes you three clicks, through three screens, to find local weather information at weather.com. More visible real estate = more ad space to sell = more revenue, so sites like weather.com have an incentive to push each user through large, multiple screens of data. Today Google crams nine or more ads from search results on a PC screen. Alas, only one ad will fit on most mobile phones. As millions of consumers adopt mobile internet in the next few years, Google and advertisers will have a hard time finding shelf space.

(Now, if Google were really worried, they'd probably want to start designing a new cell phone interface ... oh, never mind.)

The GVI challenge is one of several cracks under advertisers' feet. The second serious challenge is that online users migrating to social media are no longer paying attention to ads, since they are focused on engaging socially with friends. Sure, Slide may reach 140+ million users with widgets each month, but if you write us with the names of three ads you recall seeing while using SuperPoke or FunWall, we'll send you a prize. And now Danah Boyd notes a third scary trend for online marketers: not only are social media users ignoring ads, users are beginning to lock unwanted messages out. In a recent speech Danah

... basically told this room full of marketers desperate to get on teens' friends lists, that those teens think that's creepy and invasive. Why? Because it's THEIR Space -- even if it's public (which most teen profiles aren't anymore). She had a great analogy of teens telling their parents, "It's MY ROOM." And the parents telling teens "It's MY HOUSE." Just as teens put "keep out" signs on their bedroom doors, teens have created "structural walls" to keep everyone but their friends out on social networking sites. (Tx Anastasia Goodstein, for the report.)

Ouch. Less ad space. Less-attentive audience. Consumers doing something other than listening, and consumers more than willing to block out your peripheral pitch. GVI is more than a physical screen problem; it's a metaphor for the new mindset of the MySpace generation who are crowding out ad messages with their own portals to private communications. Egad, marketers -- suddenly logos on cotton T-shirts are looking fine.